The Longest March

It was the summer of 1962. The Berlin Wall was new and mostly graffiti-free. Cuban exiles in Miami anxiously awaited the repatriation of their friends and relatives who were captured a year prior when their bedraggled brigade washed ashore at the Bay of Pigs without the hoped for air cover. And Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. […]

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

If you’re like me, there’s no way you thought the election mechanics this year would go so smoothly (going to pretend Nevada doesn’t exist.) Most states increased their absentee/vote by mail participation exponentially. The primaries held after Covid began were a clusterf*ck. And that’s a kind description. There were concerns about access to drop boxes. […]

Georgia on Everyone’s Mind

In yesterday’s post, I did some quick calculating on the Senate and the Democrats odds of reaching a 50/50 tie that would make Kamala Harris the tiebreaker and have Chuck Schumer replace Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader. I was correct that the only path involved both Georgia contests reaching a run-off and the Democrat winning […]

So…..What Now?

Hi! How you all doing? In case you aren’t sure what happened yesterday, Joe Biden won. No, this won’t be official for a couple of days. Yes, there will be controversy for a couple of weeks at a minimum. But we’re done here. Biden will win Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Combined with the Second […]

It’s the End of the Republic as We Knew It

The presidential election system in the United States depends more on norms than rules. So when you remove the norms, there’s not much left. You’ll read all kinds of hyperbolic headlines about the just completed debate. “Trainwreck,” “Disaster,” “Chaos.” It’s worse than that. There’s a reason Chris Wallace couldn’t manage the debate, and it’s not […]

State of the States: Delaware

You can argue Delaware is the most anonymous state in the Union. The one people forget when listing the states. Rhode Island is the smallest, Wyoming the most sparse. This is the one they overlook. I’d suspect a good amount of Joe Biden supporters don’t remember what state he represented. He likes being called Scranton […]

A Few Quick Thoughts About the New Nominee

It’s so tempting to come up with quick takes. I did this last week upon the passing of RBG and already disagree with a couple of things I said. But I’m a glutton for punishment, so let’s try again. Here are the first things that crossed my mind in the immediate aftermath of Amy Coney […]

State of the States: Nebraska

Nebraska is red. This is easy to picture. The Nebraska football team wears red and white. The electoral results match the reputation too. The state has favored Republicans by no less than R+13 in every election from 1940 to the present. Only one Democrat has won Nebraska in the past 80 years, Lyndon Johnson in […]

State of the States: South Carolina

South Carolina is currently the most consistent state in the Union. In the 8 elections between 1988 and 2016, the state was between R+14 and R+16 each time. Current poll averages are showing R+14. This is a place that knows what it is. Except when it changes its mind. From 1896 to 1944, South Carolina […]

State of the States: Indiana

During his 2020 primary campaign, (which now seems 1,000 years ago) Pete Buttigieg claimed electoral legitimacy because he won re-election being openly gay in “Mike Pence’s Indiana.” It’s a good setup. Pence isn’t exactly gay-friendly. Indiana is red. It’s a great David v. Goliath tale. It was also some quality political prestidigitation. South Bend does […]