State of the States: Oregon

Even if you’ve never watched an episode of Portlandia, your political image of Oregon is likely very blue. It seems like a very liberal/progressive place, one beyond allergic to Donald Trump. Not quite. Joe Biden will win there in November. But by 12 points, maybe, maybe 15 or 16, not the 30+ in California or […]

State of the States: Alaska

Alaska is red, violets are blue. Some things just are. Until they’re not. In the case of the 49th State, the only one that can make Texas look mini, I was preparing to write a quick piece about how it’s definitely in Donald Trump’s column, with a quick aside about the old election that moved […]

State of the States: Texas

Almost twenty years ago, political demographer Ruy Teixeira and journalist John Judis wrote a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority. The thesis is that by combining women, racial and ethnic minorities, and knowledge workers, Democrats could create an enduring governing majority. This is exactly what the Democratic coalition in blue places looks like these days. […]

State of the States: Rhode Island

We’re used to thinking about religion impacting voting. The Republican capture of the evangelical vote over the past 40 years is the single biggest factor in the past several GOP victories. As Trump haters lament the success the thrice-married, porn star paying, not sure how to hold a bible president continues to have with this […]

State of the States: Wyoming

When you think of the perfect state for Donald Trump, Wyoming probably isn’t your first thought, and not just because the state ranks with Delaware on the list of states many Americans forget about when trying to list all the states. But it was his best state in 2016, and there’s no reason to think […]

State of the States: Florida

For any Democrats who were still under the illusion this was going to be easy, a new Florida poll from NBC/Marist ended that consideration yesterday. Among likely voters it was a dead heat, 48/48. Immediately, memories of disappointments in 2016 and 2000 returned, along with various statewide contests, most recently the 2018 GOP wins for […]

State of the States: Hawaii

You haven’t spent much time thinking about who will capture Hawaii’s four electoral votes. Partly because you never think about Hawaii unless you’re planning a vacation. Partly because if you accidentally thought about it in election terms, you quickly remembered Biden will win by a lot. There’s never been a famous Hawaii caucus or primary. […]

State of the States: Michigan

Welcome to the the first of 51 (D.C. has electoral votes too) reviews of the states that are choosing the next president. At various times in American history, the popular vote and electoral vote line up almost precisely. This isn’t one of those occasions. The drama is all on the state by state tabulation side. […]

Where We’re At

Once upon a time, Labor Day was the official kickoff of the General Election campaign. Candidates would rest up and prep after their conventions, followed by a two month sprint. That sort of calendar is long in the past. Joe Biden won’t be addressing a large Labor Day crowd in Detroit at Cadillac Square, as […]