How Long Will Warren Persist?

A few months ago, when Elizabeth Warren was challenging Joe Biden at the top of national polls, leading in Iowa and sometimes New Hampshire, and the darling of betting markets, the question was how long Bernie Sanders would stick around as a spoiler. It didn’t look like he could win, but he’d have money to […]

How Bloomberg Wins

Now that he’s climbed to fourth place in the national poll averages, it’s time for the Michael Bloomberg, Democratic Nominee exercise. A few quick reminders. This isn’t likely to happen. Put your money on Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders if the odds for them are the same as Mike. Elizabeth Warren is more likely too. […]

Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

There’s Something Happening Here (Maybe)

Woke up Monday morning to a Neighborhood Research and Media Iowa poll that looked like an outlier. When I clicked through for the crosstabs, and saw Breitbart News had uploaded it for distribution, my suspicions increased. The commentary accompanying the data wasn’t in the tone one hears from most pollsters. And the conclusions didn’t quite […]

Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]

2024: A Political Odyssey

It seems like the 2020 campaign has already gone on forever. Donald Trump hasn’t stopped campaigning since the day he was inaugurated. Most of the Democratic contenders have been officially or semi-officially running for over a year. John Delaney, who, though you didn’t realize it, is still running, declared his candidacy on July 28, 2017. […]

Did the Debate Matter?

I wondered this frequently as I suffered through the 130 minutes or so. For the last couple contests in 2019, I didn’t expect much. These contests can burn a viewer out, and I was fried. Your correspondent endured out of duty more than curiosity. Some time passed, I forgot how painful these can be. It’s […]

Debate Prep: Can Uncle Joe Close?

Things are looking pretty, pretty, pretty good for Mr. Biden. After 9 months of tripping and stumbling his way through the campaign, it’s clear he never fell. More than a few candidate strategies were based on picking up the pieces after his inevitable demise. Most of those candidates will be watching him from home Tuesday […]

Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Is Winning Still Everything?

Primaries are about winning. Frequently, a candidate winning or losing a single state by a few points completely changes the trajectory of the contest. In 2016, Bernie Sanders put a good scare into Hillary Clinton. He’d have struggled to win no matter what, but losing Iowa 49.9% to 49.6% and finishing a few points behind […]