Warren Levels Up

Elizabeth Warren is officially up a level. It’s not at the expense of Joe Biden. She’s also not ahead of him yet. Like usual, the narrative to bury him is premature. But make no mistake, she got a pile of good poll results this week. She’s distinctly ahead of Sanders nationally now. There are eight […]

Trump is at Peak Popularity

We know Democratic primary voters are prioritizing defeating Donald Trump. At least that’s what they tell pollsters. We know there’s a new controversy, perhaps an impeachable one. The president has admitted telling a foreign leader to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden and more than implied that yes, the release of a financial aid package was […]

State of the Race: Team Afterthought

With Bill deBlasio’s departure, there are 19 declared candidates. We covered the Big 2.75 on Monday. Then we explored the Next Five, who will either form a single contender by the end of Iowa caucus proceedings or all fade into the mist. This leaves 11 others, none of whom will be the Democratic nominee, all […]

State of the Race: Door #4

If we believe the odds, there’s at least an 80% chance the Democratic nominee is Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders. You might think the number is even higher. But none are in the sort of unassailable position that guarantees nomination. If you get anywhere near even odds on those three against the field, […]

State of the Race: The Big 2.75

Greetings! It’s time to check back in on our leading contenders. As usual, most of the news revolves around Joe Biden. As usual most of the positive vibes belong to Elizabeth Warren. As usual, Bernie Sanders is being dismissed. Biden is exactly where we left him a few weeks ago. After a slight blip, his […]

Generational Change isn’t a Thing

Generational change is a key part of Pete Buttigieg’s pitch. One of his favorite topics is talking about how the world will look in 2054 when he’s as old as Donald Trump is now. He’s the first serious millennial presidential candidate (sorry for now Tulsi.) Others have tried this too. Eric Swalwell, barely older than […]

What if Debates Don’t Matter Anymore?

We’re trained to think primary debates matter. Historically they do. Or at least there’s tons of circumstantial evidence. Democrats will give this several more tries this cycle. At some point, maybe something will happen that impacts the nomination contest. Not yet though. Politico/Morning Consult does a weekly survey of the Democratic field. Conveniently we have […]

Hail to the Veep

Whatever you think of Joe Biden’s candidacy, I think we can all agree it doesn’t exist without his vice presidency. In the recent series of CBS/YouGov early state polls, respondents were asked why they supported the candidate they chose. Sanders, Warren, and Harris voters agreed policy positions were a reason more than 80% of the […]

Debate Recap: Five Answers

Before the debate, I asked five questions. Here are the five answers: #1 No, Biden wasn’t a deer in the headlights He wasn’t good. He wasn’t frequently coherent. Most of his statistics were wrong. If you weren’t for Biden before the debate began, you aren’t for him now. But the looks of confusion that plagued […]