10 is a Crowd

Tom Steyer missed the September debate cut. His strategy of advertising in early voting states to get the necessary poll results, which your correspondent knew would work, didn’t. He’s still one 2% survey short. No new qualifying polls were released in the past couple weeks. He’ll qualify for October, the instant another DNC-certified Iowa, New […]

The Economist to the Rescue!

I need to apologize. For multiple days, I’ve been aware of extra poll aggregating data. The Economist has a newish portal for this. Your lazy correspondent finally checked it out today. It’s amazing. I’ve relied on the Real Clear Politics Average/list to see the mainstream surveys regularly referenced by the media and also used by […]

Emergency Poll Freakout

There’s a new national survey from Monmouth. Joe Biden is third. He’s below 20%. There are two ways to look at this: WTF!?!? Or Meh Let’s see which makes more sense. We’ll begin with the 6.7 on the Political Richter Scale scenario. Concern #1: Monmouth doesn’t usually hate Biden. Last time they had him at […]

Flies on an Elephant’s Back

Bill Weld announced his Republican primary challenge months ago. As of yesterday morning, Joe Walsh is in. Mark Sanford is thinking about it, and will decide in the next week or two. Should Donald Trump be concerned? Break out in a cold sweat? Or mostly disregard? A primary challenge is deadly. Since primaries were invented […]

Requiem for a Candidate: Seth Moulton

You couldn’t have designed a more perfect candidacy. To fail. He’s too centrist. He lacks a national brand. He entered the contest later than most. He’s a straight white male. He’s a Congressman, not a Senator or ex-VP. One or two of those are surmountable. Not all. With Pete Buttigieg and Julian Castro around, there […]

Requiem for a Candidate: Jay Inslee

Remember Tom Tancredo’s presidential campaign? If you don’t, you’re not exactly alone. He dropped out of the 2008 GOP contest in late 2007, and hasn’t won elected office since. Like Jay Inslee, he was a single issue candidate. Tancredo was all about immigration and the border. He’d announced in early 2005 that he would become […]

Rock, Paper, Scissors

You can usually tell when pundits are getting bored. It’s hard to do your regular cable news hit, send a constant stream of tweets, when there isn’t that much happening. We aren’t waiting on new candidates to announce they’re entering the race. Anyone quitting this early wasn’t getting attention anyway. It’s a few weeks until […]

Warren v. Sanders: Is it Even a Contest?

Elizabeth Warren has consigned Bernie Sanders to the dustbin. A recent national Fox News poll has her leading him 21% to 10%. To show you how much she’s surged and he’s collapsed, in March, Fox had him ahead of her 23% to 4%. While national surveys get more attention, the race begins in Iowa. The […]

Polling Update: Mid-August Standings

Greetings! It’s time for a fresh look at the numbers. When we last did this, 10 days ago, there wasn’t evidence of a big post-debate bounce or collapse for anyone. The headlines are indicating Elizabeth Warren has advanced a bit further. How true is this? Has she separated herself from Bernie Sanders? To see supporting […]

Requiem for a Candidate: John Hickenlooper

Let’s compare two candidates. We’ll pick up their story in late 2010. Candidate A: After working as a geologist, he found himself unemployed after a corporate buyout, during a historic downturn in the oil market. Facing a career crossroads, he borrowed money from friends, family, and the local economic development fund to launch one of […]