Beating Trump

It’s Debate Day! Tonight, 12 contestants will scrap and claw in the attempt to forward their odds of stepping on to a stage with Donald Trump about a year from now. Every poll and metric indicates Democratic primary voters are primarily concerned with beating Trump. FiveThirtyEight is partnering with Ipsos to measure the same voters […]

Pre-Debate Standings

None of the first three Democratic presidential debates have moved the world. At least not on their own. But you never know when a fleeting moment will launch or smash a campaign. Let’s take a look at where the contestants are now on the eve of the event. We’ve got new polling in most of […]

Who’s Taking the Extra Seat at the Table?

Appearances often deceive. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are combining for more than 50% in most national polls. They’re as tied as you can be right now. The Real Clear Politics average has him at 26.5%, her at 26.0%. Warren leads more often, Biden by larger margins when he’s ahead. By most metrics, it’s clearly […]

The Heartbeat of the Democratic Party

Bernie Sanders is recovering from the procedure that put two stents in one of his arteries. It’s taken a couple days, but the media is finally using correct terminology. He’s tweeting about why Medicare for All is necessary. The campaign has confirmed he will attend the October 15 debate in Ohio. We can now safely […]

Who Had a Good Quarter?

Time for the end of quarter report card. The criteria is simple. If you’d talked to the candidate and/or their team on June 30, told them their status on September 30 would be as it is now and they would have leapt to their feet clicking their heels together, they get an A. The more […]

State of the Race: The Big 2.75

Greetings! It’s time to check back in on our leading contenders. As usual, most of the news revolves around Joe Biden. As usual most of the positive vibes belong to Elizabeth Warren. As usual, Bernie Sanders is being dismissed. Biden is exactly where we left him a few weeks ago. After a slight blip, his […]

Debate Recap: Five Answers

Before the debate, I asked five questions. Here are the five answers: #1 No, Biden wasn’t a deer in the headlights He wasn’t good. He wasn’t frequently coherent. Most of his statistics were wrong. If you weren’t for Biden before the debate began, you aren’t for him now. But the looks of confusion that plagued […]

Berning the Skeptics

I wasn’t a believer either. The 2016 version of Bernie Sanders followed an insurgent model that doesn’t play well as an encore. If you’ve ever seen Hangover 2, you know a sequel with the same plot as the original falls flat. Sure, he had a base of true believers, but many of his primary voters […]

Sound Check

Yesterday, your intrepid correspondent forced himself to watch all ten candidates at the CNN Climate Crisis Town Hall. This does not mean I watched all 40 minutes of each. Not even close. A minimum of 7 to 10 minutes, sometimes a lot more. With no candidates directly facing off, this wasn’t like a debate. But […]

Emergency Poll Freakout

There’s a new national survey from Monmouth. Joe Biden is third. He’s below 20%. There are two ways to look at this: WTF!?!? Or Meh Let’s see which makes more sense. We’ll begin with the 6.7 on the Political Richter Scale scenario. Concern #1: Monmouth doesn’t usually hate Biden. Last time they had him at […]