Pre-Debate Numbers Check

This seems like an appropriate time to take a glance at where the candidates are. Particularly the four who are most likely to win the nomination. None of the others are showing up in double digits anywhere. So if they do soon, it’s likely this debate helped. Biden is looking better than he has in […]

Iowa Speaks

At this time of the pre-primary season, the most important pollster is J. Ann Selzer. Her surveys for the Des Moines Register/CNN are considered the most accurate of anyone who polls Iowa. Over the weekend, her latest poll dropped, and it’s the clearest indication yet that we have a four person race for the nomination. […]

Older Voters Like the Young Guy

We’ve talked about the irony of the oldest candidate, Bernie Sanders, doing best with the youngest voters and worst with the oldest. His numbers drop with each age bucket. Knowing when a voter was born is far more predictive than finding out their ideology. The self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist runs better with 28-year-old moderates than 68-year-old […]

Who Had a Neutral Quarter?

As interesting as the big winners and losers are, some candidates had a neutral third quarter. If they don’t make it to the nomination, they’ll look back on the summer of 2019 as a missed opportunity. If one should upset the leaders to grab the prize, the story is how they didn’t collapse while others […]

State of the Race: Door #4

If we believe the odds, there’s at least an 80% chance the Democratic nominee is Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders. You might think the number is even higher. But none are in the sort of unassailable position that guarantees nomination. If you get anywhere near even odds on those three against the field, […]

What if Debates Don’t Matter Anymore?

We’re trained to think primary debates matter. Historically they do. Or at least there’s tons of circumstantial evidence. Democrats will give this several more tries this cycle. At some point, maybe something will happen that impacts the nomination contest. Not yet though. Politico/Morning Consult does a weekly survey of the Democratic field. Conveniently we have […]

Home Safe Home?

Elizabeth Warren is good shape. Betting markets think she’s the most likely nominee. More Democratic voters are considering her than any other candidate. She’s in the top three in every national survey from August or September that Real Clear Politics lists. Warren posted strong second quarter fundraising numbers without doing any big donor events. She […]

Berning the Skeptics

I wasn’t a believer either. The 2016 version of Bernie Sanders followed an insurgent model that doesn’t play well as an encore. If you’ve ever seen Hangover 2, you know a sequel with the same plot as the original falls flat. Sure, he had a base of true believers, but many of his primary voters […]

This is Still a 12 Pack

Tonight, CNN is subjecting the world to seven hours of town hall programming, featuring the Democratic presidential field. Each of the 10 approved contestants have 40 minutes or so to field questions about climate change from audience members and assorted CNN moderators. With Dorian doing his worst as he works his way up the Atlantic […]

The Economist to the Rescue!

I need to apologize. For multiple days, I’ve been aware of extra poll aggregating data. The Economist has a newish portal for this. Your lazy correspondent finally checked it out today. It’s amazing. I’ve relied on the Real Clear Politics Average/list to see the mainstream surveys regularly referenced by the media and also used by […]