The Power of Caucus Math

As I type this, 88% of Nevada precincts have reported. Close enough to done for us to look under the hood a bit. And we’re finding the conversion from first alignment (i.e. popular vote), to final alignment, to County Caucus Delegates, changes the story. A lot. If it weren’t for Bernie Sanders, we’d lack this […]

Turnout!

If you’ve heard Bernie Sanders speak for more than a minute, you know he hates billionaires and plans to implement his political revolution by turning out millions of first-time voters. These newbies will propel him to the Democratic nomination, boost him past Donald Trump, and give Senate candidates a critical push to win Democratic control, […]

How Low is Bernie’s Ceiling?

There are a few key questions in the ongoing Democratic nomination scramble. Can more moderate voters unify around a single candidate? If so, whom? And, perhaps most important, where is Bernie’s ceiling? If it’s high enough, it doesn’t matter if he only has a single opponent. If it’s low enough, he could lose the nomination […]

New Hampshire Preview: Final Predictions

The time has come. By the time you read this, they’ll have already begun voting in Dixville Notch, NH. As they continue reviewing precincts in Iowa, we’re almost guaranteed to know who won New Hampshire before there’s an undisputed winner of the Iowa State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs.) Nevada is fixing to have a lot of […]

Too Close to Know

If anyone tells you they know who really won the 2000 Presidential Election, they’re lying to you, lying to themselves, or both. Technically, George W. Bush won Florida, and thus the presidency by 537 votes as per the final recount. But as anyone who was around for the comedy of errors and hanging chads remembers, […]

Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

There’s Something Happening Here (Maybe)

Woke up Monday morning to a Neighborhood Research and Media Iowa poll that looked like an outlier. When I clicked through for the crosstabs, and saw Breitbart News had uploaded it for distribution, my suspicions increased. The commentary accompanying the data wasn’t in the tone one hears from most pollsters. And the conclusions didn’t quite […]

Who Are Bloomberg’s Voters?

Hi! We’re going to do something we shouldn’t. Use a single poll to answer questions about voter support. Partly I’m lazy. Also, I’m guilty of confirmation bias. The new Quinnipiac poll looks very plausible, and it’s a well-respected survey. Plus the numbers are going to let me work with a narrative that makes sense. Now […]

The AOC Effect?

Bernie Sanders woke up today in very good political shape. He’s at or near the lead in the first three states. He’s ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the national polling averages. The betting markets have him as the second most likely nominee. Sure, Joe Biden is still the favorite, but Bernie is well positioned. If […]

Pre-Debate Numbers Check

This seems like an appropriate time to take a glance at where the candidates are. Particularly the four who are most likely to win the nomination. None of the others are showing up in double digits anywhere. So if they do soon, it’s likely this debate helped. Biden is looking better than he has in […]