What Matters in Iowa (Part 1–An Overview)

Iowa matters. A lot. The modern primary era began in 1972. Since then, only one nominee in either party has finished lower than third in a contested Iowa caucus. Every nominee who finished third or lower then won New Hampshire. As did almost all second place finishers. As much as Donald Trump upended the universe […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 4)

If you haven’t yet, please read: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Welcome to the end of the road. We began with the polling leaders. We conclude with a few candidates who need their cards to come up almost perfectly. This group is quantitatively different from the contestants we aren’t mentioning at all. Those individuals […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 3)

Note: If you missed Part 1, or Part 2, you’ll want to catch up before reading on. So far, we’ve confirmed some conventional wisdom. Joe Biden has a base with older, more moderate voters. Bernie Sanders has a base with younger, more liberal voters. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have sunk multiple pylons, but haven’t […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 2)

In Part 1, we began breaking down how the candidates are building a base for themselves. Joe Biden went through the MRI first. Now on to a few other leading contenders: Kamala Harris: Prior to the debate, Harris wasn’t building that much of a base with any group of voters. This has changed. Her lead […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 1)

It’s easy to get anxious looking for post-debate poll results. At least it’s easy for me. A new survey from CNN taken 6/28-6/30 has some striking results. The most visible item is found on the top line: Biden 22% (down 10 from 5/28-5/30) Harris 17% (up 9) Warren 15% (up 8) Sanders 14% (down 4) […]