Did the Debate Matter?

Enough to overpower the Impeachment hearings? Hell no. Today’s revelations will overpower whatever the world remembers from the debate. Yesterday, observers were already burned out from the hearings before the debate started. The universe of people who are super excited about the Democratic nomination contest, but don’t care about the hearings is very small. And […]

Pre-Debate Numbers Check

This seems like an appropriate time to take a glance at where the candidates are. Particularly the four who are most likely to win the nomination. None of the others are showing up in double digits anywhere. So if they do soon, it’s likely this debate helped. Biden is looking better than he has in […]

Debate Prep: Advice Time

The last few debates haven’t shaken the ground much. Not saying they were irrelevant, but less interesting/meaningful than the average pre-primary debate cycle. Think that’s gonna change tomorrow. Don’t look for giant changes in national polls. Instead, it’s likely to influence Iowa and New Hampshire. At this point, that’s where the game is anyway. If […]

A Few Post-Debate Questions

You don’t need to read another debate recap. Too many people were on stage for too long arguing about things they mostly agree on. Nobody had the kind of horrible, cringe-worthy moment that ends careers. Nobody landed the thirty second shot that makes a president. Whenever the next one of these is (November 20) is […]

Pre-Debate Standings

None of the first three Democratic presidential debates have moved the world. At least not on their own. But you never know when a fleeting moment will launch or smash a campaign. Let’s take a look at where the contestants are now on the eve of the event. We’ve got new polling in most of […]

What if Debates Don’t Matter Anymore?

We’re trained to think primary debates matter. Historically they do. Or at least there’s tons of circumstantial evidence. Democrats will give this several more tries this cycle. At some point, maybe something will happen that impacts the nomination contest. Not yet though. Politico/Morning Consult does a weekly survey of the Democratic field. Conveniently we have […]

Debate Recap: Five Answers

Before the debate, I asked five questions. Here are the five answers: #1 No, Biden wasn’t a deer in the headlights He wasn’t good. He wasn’t frequently coherent. Most of his statistics were wrong. If you weren’t for Biden before the debate began, you aren’t for him now. But the looks of confusion that plagued […]

Debate Prep: Five Questions

Yes, debates are kinda overrated. No, they’re not usually as meaningless as the first two Democratic rounds. In two debates over four nights, we’ve see a Kamala Harris bubble which quickly lost helium, and a related panic over Joe Biden, which soon subsided. Elizabeth Warren probably helped her standing by performing well. Though there’s no […]

10 is a Crowd

Tom Steyer missed the September debate cut. His strategy of advertising in early voting states to get the necessary poll results, which your correspondent knew would work, didn’t. He’s still one 2% survey short. No new qualifying polls were released in the past couple weeks. He’ll qualify for October, the instant another DNC-certified Iowa, New […]

Being a Billionaire Doesn’t Suck

The Democratic electorate has no interest in John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Jay Inslee, or Steve Bullock. Four current or very recent governors or senators, popular with their home states. The most current estimates have all four missing the next round of debates. You need four qualifying polls of two percent or higher. These four individuals […]