State of the Race: The Big 2.75

Greetings! It’s time to check back in on our leading contenders. As usual, most of the news revolves around Joe Biden. As usual most of the positive vibes belong to Elizabeth Warren. As usual, Bernie Sanders is being dismissed. Biden is exactly where we left him a few weeks ago. After a slight blip, his […]

Debate Recap: Five Answers

Before the debate, I asked five questions. Here are the five answers: #1 No, Biden wasn’t a deer in the headlights He wasn’t good. He wasn’t frequently coherent. Most of his statistics were wrong. If you weren’t for Biden before the debate began, you aren’t for him now. But the looks of confusion that plagued […]

Debate Prep: Five Questions

Yes, debates are kinda overrated. No, they’re not usually as meaningless as the first two Democratic rounds. In two debates over four nights, we’ve see a Kamala Harris bubble which quickly lost helium, and a related panic over Joe Biden, which soon subsided. Elizabeth Warren probably helped her standing by performing well. Though there’s no […]

Home Safe Home?

Elizabeth Warren is good shape. Betting markets think she’s the most likely nominee. More Democratic voters are considering her than any other candidate. She’s in the top three in every national survey from August or September that Real Clear Politics lists. Warren posted strong second quarter fundraising numbers without doing any big donor events. She […]

Biden Doesn’t Need Iowa. Warren Does.

The Biden campaign is downplaying the necessity of winning Iowa. The media is treating this as an early surrender, a sign of weakness. We’ll save the efficacy of Biden campaign strategy and strategic leaking for another day. Today I’m here to agree with Team Biden. He doesn’t need to win Iowa. Elizabeth Warren does. Sorry […]

Sound Check

Yesterday, your intrepid correspondent forced himself to watch all ten candidates at the CNN Climate Crisis Town Hall. This does not mean I watched all 40 minutes of each. Not even close. A minimum of 7 to 10 minutes, sometimes a lot more. With no candidates directly facing off, this wasn’t like a debate. But […]

Emergency Poll Freakout

There’s a new national survey from Monmouth. Joe Biden is third. He’s below 20%. There are two ways to look at this: WTF!?!? Or Meh Let’s see which makes more sense. We’ll begin with the 6.7 on the Political Richter Scale scenario. Concern #1: Monmouth doesn’t usually hate Biden. Last time they had him at […]

Rock, Paper, Scissors

You can usually tell when pundits are getting bored. It’s hard to do your regular cable news hit, send a constant stream of tweets, when there isn’t that much happening. We aren’t waiting on new candidates to announce they’re entering the race. Anyone quitting this early wasn’t getting attention anyway. It’s a few weeks until […]

Warren v. Sanders: Is it Even a Contest?

Elizabeth Warren has consigned Bernie Sanders to the dustbin. A recent national Fox News poll has her leading him 21% to 10%. To show you how much she’s surged and he’s collapsed, in March, Fox had him ahead of her 23% to 4%. While national surveys get more attention, the race begins in Iowa. The […]

The Big Three

As of this morning, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren control a full two-thirds of total national polling support in the Democratic nomination contest. The remaining 20+ contestants are good for a quarter, with about 8% of poll respondents in the pit of indecision. Here’s another way to look at the standings: Biden 30.3% […]