Requiem for a Candidate: Kamala Harris

Running for president is hard. Kamala Harris is the proof. And you don’t know if someone can do it until they do. If you’d given me two draft picks in January, I’d have chosen Kamala and Beto. Neither made it to Iowa. Some expert, eh? So what happened? When she began, I figured this might […]

Pete’s Precedents (Part One)

Pete Buttigieg likes reminding voters there was “another young guy with a funny name” who won Iowa and went on to take the nomination and presidency. Linking yourself to a still-popular recent president is smart. And with many voters already liking Mayor Pete, anything he can do to build plausibility gets him a step closer […]

Iowa Speaks

At this time of the pre-primary season, the most important pollster is J. Ann Selzer. Her surveys for the Des Moines Register/CNN are considered the most accurate of anyone who polls Iowa. Over the weekend, her latest poll dropped, and it’s the clearest indication yet that we have a four person race for the nomination. […]

Where is Mayor Pete’s West Virginia?

Pete Buttigieg is hardly trying to be the first first. Al Smith became the first Catholic major party nominee in 1928. JFK broke that barrier for winning candidates in 1960. The African American barrier fell in 2008, a woman won the national popular vote in 2016. Donald Trump was a first too. A president who […]

Is Biden the Next Newt or Rudy?

This isn’t intended as the slam it most definitely reads like. Prior to becoming Trump Era caricatures of themselves, both Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich faced a scenario somewhat similar to what Joe Biden’s team is managing today. They were national polling front-runners a few months before voting began, knowing neither Iowa nor New Hampshire […]

Generational Change isn’t a Thing

Generational change is a key part of Pete Buttigieg’s pitch. One of his favorite topics is talking about how the world will look in 2054 when he’s as old as Donald Trump is now. He’s the first serious millennial presidential candidate (sorry for now Tulsi.) Others have tried this too. Eric Swalwell, barely older than […]

Hail to the Veep

Whatever you think of Joe Biden’s candidacy, I think we can all agree it doesn’t exist without his vice presidency. In the recent series of CBS/YouGov early state polls, respondents were asked why they supported the candidate they chose. Sanders, Warren, and Harris voters agreed policy positions were a reason more than 80% of the […]

Requiem for a Candidate: Kirsten Gillibrand

In the early-mid 1960s, Atlanta was still very much segregated. In 1973, Atlanta elected a black mayor. His name is on the airport now. Things move fast sometimes. And you don’t always realize a barrier has fallen until so many have run past it that in retrospect it seems inevitable. A bunch of small, halting, […]

Flies on an Elephant’s Back

Bill Weld announced his Republican primary challenge months ago. As of yesterday morning, Joe Walsh is in. Mark Sanford is thinking about it, and will decide in the next week or two. Should Donald Trump be concerned? Break out in a cold sweat? Or mostly disregard? A primary challenge is deadly. Since primaries were invented […]

Requiem for a Candidate: Seth Moulton

You couldn’t have designed a more perfect candidacy. To fail. He’s too centrist. He lacks a national brand. He entered the contest later than most. He’s a straight white male. He’s a Congressman, not a Senator or ex-VP. One or two of those are surmountable. Not all. With Pete Buttigieg and Julian Castro around, there […]