A Statement of Intent

If you aren’t Black and the past couple weeks haven’t made you think, at least a bit, about what your responsibilities as a human and an American citizen are, then I’d question what will. I’m at least as guilty as millions of others of keeping my thoughts to myself. In my writing, in my interactions […]

To Linger, or Not to Linger?

Bernie Sanders is done. Cooked. Flambeed. Fricasseed. Idaho was his fifth best 2016 state. Yesterday he lost it. Washington was #6. If he manages a narrow escape, it’s only because many ballots were mailed in before his non-Biden opponents dropped out. He almost won Missouri last time. This time, he lost every county. As he […]

Super Tuesday Update: CA, MA, MN, TX—Not So Fast

Yesterday, I innocently thought it was safe to start writing Super Tuesday previews. And posting them. First Pete Buttigieg said goodbye. Ok, update the first one, edit the second. Wait to do anything else. Then Amy Klobuchar exited. Both are endorsing Joe Biden tonight. Which means a good amount of what was said yesterday needs […]

Super Tuesday Preview: CA, TX—There’s Delegates in Them Thar Hills

Between them, California and Texas have 643 delegates to assign. That’s more than 15% of the total. In a world where the same candidate won all of the delegates from both states, it would give them about a third of what they need to get nominated. Super Tuesday has a lot to pay attention to, […]

The Biden Resurrection

Joe Biden is back. A couple days ago it became clear South Carolina would revive him, but the did more than that. He won by almost 30 points. His victory was almost a mirror image of what Bernie Sanders did in Nevada a week ago. Almost. Both fell just short of 50%. But Biden did […]

South Carolina Preview: Final Predictions

Joe Biden is going to win. Sorry if I ruined the fun. But the margin matters. As does the order others wind up in. Also the delegate count. A candidate needs 15% statewide or 15% in a congressional district to qualify. Biden and Bernie Sanders are going to be over the threshold. Will any of […]

South Carolina Pumps the Brakes

The Palmetto State is 48 hours away from officially salvaging Joe Biden’s candidacy. A week ago, Biden and Bernie Sanders were effectively tied in South Carolina polls. Today, Biden is up by 20 points. Twenty. It’s the best he’s looked there in weeks. You might think he was boosted by Tuesday’s debate and/or the endorsement […]

Sh*tshow at the O.K. Corral

Folks, the fact of the matter is, this was awful. Yeah, it’s fun to watch Elizabeth Warren beat on Mike Bloomberg, but those fireworks were confined to the first 20-30 minutes. After that, it was a bunch of presidential aspirants channeling their third grade selves, leaning forward, hands raised, hoping to get called on, and […]

Debate Preview: A Debate for Old Men

This debate is about two candidates. Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg. The others are garnish. Props. Facilitators. They exist merely to test our two protagonists. But what about Elizabeth Warren? See above. If Bloomie can’t handle her assault after getting a practice round, then he and his half-billion dollars (and counting) project is doomed. The […]

The Power of Caucus Math

As I type this, 88% of Nevada precincts have reported. Close enough to done for us to look under the hood a bit. And we’re finding the conversion from first alignment (i.e. popular vote), to final alignment, to County Caucus Delegates, changes the story. A lot. If it weren’t for Bernie Sanders, we’d lack this […]