South Carolina Preview: Final Predictions

Joe Biden is going to win. Sorry if I ruined the fun. But the margin matters. As does the order others wind up in. Also the delegate count. A candidate needs 15% statewide or 15% in a congressional district to qualify. Biden and Bernie Sanders are going to be over the threshold. Will any of …

South Carolina Pumps the Brakes

The Palmetto State is 48 hours away from officially salvaging Joe Biden’s candidacy. A week ago, Biden and Bernie Sanders were effectively tied in South Carolina polls. Today, Biden is up by 20 points. Twenty. It’s the best he’s looked there in weeks. You might think he was boosted by Tuesday’s debate and/or the endorsement …

Sh*tshow at the O.K. Corral

Folks, the fact of the matter is, this was awful. Yeah, it’s fun to watch Elizabeth Warren beat on Mike Bloomberg, but those fireworks were confined to the first 20-30 minutes. After that, it was a bunch of presidential aspirants channeling their third grade selves, leaning forward, hands raised, hoping to get called on, and …

Debate Preview: A Debate for Old Men

This debate is about two candidates. Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg. The others are garnish. Props. Facilitators. They exist merely to test our two protagonists. But what about Elizabeth Warren? See above. If Bloomie can’t handle her assault after getting a practice round, then he and his half-billion dollars (and counting) project is doomed. The …

The Power of Caucus Math

As I type this, 88% of Nevada precincts have reported. Close enough to done for us to look under the hood a bit. And we’re finding the conversion from first alignment (i.e. popular vote), to final alignment, to County Caucus Delegates, changes the story. A lot. If it weren’t for Bernie Sanders, we’d lack this …

Debate Recap: Bloomberg—God’s Gift to Warren

Donald Trump enjoyed this one. Mini Mike Bloomberg was cut down to size early and often. Most frequently by Elizabeth Warren, who let it rip after being cautious in her past couple debate outings. Unfortunately for Warren, 70,000 Nevadans have already caucused. In 2016, a total of 84,000 showed up. Early voting will definitely boost …

Measuring for Nevada

As we figured, it’s going to take some alchemy to turn the limited poll numbers (we have one current survey at the moment) in to any sort of Nevada prediction. But we’re now less than a week from Caucus Day, and early caucusing began yesterday, so damn the consequences of guessing. It’s time to start …

Nevada Prospectus

Iowa and New Hampshire have mattered for generations. Nevada is new. And more important this time than ever. There’s a ton to unpack here, so lets begin! How this caucus works: Remember Iowa? Nevada has already decided to ditch the App of Doom, and should be able to announce results before 2028. Otherwise, this one …

Schrödinger’s Biden

I’m not going to claim I truly understand the concept behind Schrödinger’s cat. There’s a cat, a box, some poison, and a Geiger counter. The cat is in the box, the Geiger counter is waiting to identify radiation, and at such point, the glass around the poison is shattered, killing the cat. But from the …

New Hampshire Preview: Final Predictions

The time has come. By the time you read this, they’ll have already begun voting in Dixville Notch, NH. As they continue reviewing precincts in Iowa, we’re almost guaranteed to know who won New Hampshire before there’s an undisputed winner of the Iowa State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs.) Nevada is fixing to have a lot of …