Moneyball

A short time ago, I confidently asserted Michael Bloomberg wouldn’t actually try this. Once he looked at the polls and saw he wasn’t making a dent, he’d gracefully retreat and hope we didn’t notice he said he might run yet again. The first week went as I figured. He sorta announced, the NYC-DC press hyperventilated, […]

When Donors Have Money Burning Holes in Their Pockets

First it was Mike Bloomberg. Now maybe Deval Patrick. As if the Democratic field wasn’t large enough, a second possible candidate who ruled out running months ago is on the verge of officially changing his mind. Again, the stated reason is concern with the present field due to Warren/Sanders being too far left and Joe […]

UncleJoePAC

Way back in 2016, Political Action Committees were taken for granted. They existed, and particularly in Super PAC form (where there’s no contribution cap) were seen as crucial. The two major innovations of the 2000s were individual internet contributions and increasingly giant Super PACs. With modest individual donation limits ($2800 for the primary to a […]

Pre-Debate Standings

None of the first three Democratic presidential debates have moved the world. At least not on their own. But you never know when a fleeting moment will launch or smash a campaign. Let’s take a look at where the contestants are now on the eve of the event. We’ve got new polling in most of […]

Who Had a Neutral Quarter?

As interesting as the big winners and losers are, some candidates had a neutral third quarter. If they don’t make it to the nomination, they’ll look back on the summer of 2019 as a missed opportunity. If one should upset the leaders to grab the prize, the story is how they didn’t collapse while others […]

Being a Billionaire Doesn’t Suck

The Democratic electorate has no interest in John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Jay Inslee, or Steve Bullock. Four current or very recent governors or senators, popular with their home states. The most current estimates have all four missing the next round of debates. You need four qualifying polls of two percent or higher. These four individuals […]

Follow the Money (Part 1: How We Got Here)

Campaign finance is forever changed. Ever since an underdog candidate from Vermont turned his back on big donors who wouldn’t have supported him anyway and proved you could raise even more in small donations from random citizens. Though he didn’t get the nomination, within two years, he was the beacon Democrats followed while winning back […]