Turnout!

If you’ve heard Bernie Sanders speak for more than a minute, you know he hates billionaires and plans to implement his political revolution by turning out millions of first-time voters. These newbies will propel him to the Democratic nomination, boost him past Donald Trump, and give Senate candidates a critical push to win Democratic control, […]

New Hampshire Recap: Klobucharge

Finishing third isn’t normally exciting. Candidates talk about there being three tickets out of Iowa or New Hampshire, but those saying that are usually deluding themselves or hoping to chisel some final donations before it’s too late. John Kasich finished second in the 2016 New Hampshire GOP contest and managed to parlay that into Dead […]

New Hampshire Preview: Final Predictions

The time has come. By the time you read this, they’ll have already begun voting in Dixville Notch, NH. As they continue reviewing precincts in Iowa, we’re almost guaranteed to know who won New Hampshire before there’s an undisputed winner of the Iowa State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs.) Nevada is fixing to have a lot of […]

Candidate Heat Check: Pre-New Hampshire Edition

When we last checked temperatures, Pete Buttigieg was chilly. His poll numbers indicated he wasn’t going to get a win in Iowa. At worst, he got a draw, so he’ll measure much warmer this time. Going the other way, Joe Biden’s nomination chances have iced significantly. We have our first “on-fire” designation, awarded to Bernie […]

New Hampshire Debate Preview: Fighting for Their Political Lives

The 2020 Democratic debate cycle has, well, there’s no other way to put it, it’s sucked. Several of these in, and the biggest moment was Kamala Harris calling out Joe Biden on busing. It resonated so well that she’s been out of the race for two months. Maybe the next most memorable thing was Pete […]

The Delay Didn’t Hurt Pete

By the time you read this, Iowa may have finally reported all results from all precincts. At the moment I type this, 96% are in, and Pete Buttigieg is still leading Bernie Sanders by a narrow margin in State Delegate Equivalents, the official currency for declaring a caucus winner. He’s going to hold on. Neither […]

Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]