Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]

Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Is Winning Still Everything?

Primaries are about winning. Frequently, a candidate winning or losing a single state by a few points completely changes the trajectory of the contest. In 2016, Bernie Sanders put a good scare into Hillary Clinton. He’d have struggled to win no matter what, but losing Iowa 49.9% to 49.6% and finishing a few points behind […]

Pre-Debate Panic Check

In case you’ve been distracted with the whole impeaching the president thing, there’s a Democratic debate coming up. Thursday, 12/19 at 8pm Eastern to be precise. It’s the first West Coast event, taking place at Loyola Marymount University, after a labor dispute caused a move from the original venue at UCLA. Until Tuesday, another labor […]

Lane Four is Getting Crowded Again

Joe Biden has a solid constituency. So does Bernie Sanders. As does Elizabeth Warren. We’ve known this for months. Somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the primary electorate would prefer another option though. If one candidate can control most of these voters, they have a very good path to the nomination. If support winds […]

The AOC Effect?

Bernie Sanders woke up today in very good political shape. He’s at or near the lead in the first three states. He’s ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the national polling averages. The betting markets have him as the second most likely nominee. Sure, Joe Biden is still the favorite, but Bernie is well positioned. If […]

Pete’s Precedents (Part One)

Pete Buttigieg likes reminding voters there was “another young guy with a funny name” who won Iowa and went on to take the nomination and presidency. Linking yourself to a still-popular recent president is smart. And with many voters already liking Mayor Pete, anything he can do to build plausibility gets him a step closer […]

Warren on the Brink

Please throw this back in my face if President Warren is inaugurated 14 months from now, but she’s in legit trouble at the moment. A new national survey from Quinnipiac is out. Before we continue, yes, I’m aware this is a single data point. I’m further aware Warren is the top second place choice of […]

Did the Debate Matter?

Enough to overpower the Impeachment hearings? Hell no. Today’s revelations will overpower whatever the world remembers from the debate. Yesterday, observers were already burned out from the hearings before the debate started. The universe of people who are super excited about the Democratic nomination contest, but don’t care about the hearings is very small. And […]