Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]

2024: A Political Odyssey

It seems like the 2020 campaign has already gone on forever. Donald Trump hasn’t stopped campaigning since the day he was inaugurated. Most of the Democratic contenders have been officially or semi-officially running for over a year. John Delaney, who, though you didn’t realize it, is still running, declared his candidacy on July 28, 2017. […]

Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Is Winning Still Everything?

Primaries are about winning. Frequently, a candidate winning or losing a single state by a few points completely changes the trajectory of the contest. In 2016, Bernie Sanders put a good scare into Hillary Clinton. He’d have struggled to win no matter what, but losing Iowa 49.9% to 49.6% and finishing a few points behind […]

Something’s Gotta Give

Andrew Yang raised $16.5 million last quarter. That’s a lot. Bernie Sanders pulled in $34.5 mil, and Mayor Pete was good for $24.7, but Yang will finish ahead of established politicians like Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker, and in the same range as Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. He’s gaining momentum. In the third quarter, […]

25,000 Voters May Choose the Nominee

There are 330 millionish Americans these days. About ten thousand of them will determine the trajectory of the Democratic nomination race. The all-time record for turnout is (approximately–exact voter count isn’t released) 240,000, set during the 2008 Obama-Hillary matchup. There’s a lot of interest this time, but I’d bet the under. Let’s say the weather […]

Who Are Bloomberg’s Voters?

Hi! We’re going to do something we shouldn’t. Use a single poll to answer questions about voter support. Partly I’m lazy. Also, I’m guilty of confirmation bias. The new Quinnipiac poll looks very plausible, and it’s a well-respected survey. Plus the numbers are going to let me work with a narrative that makes sense. Now […]

A Tale of Two Launches

A few weeks ago, Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick concluded the 2020 Democratic contest couldn’t survive without them. Somewhere north of $60 million in Bloomberg dollars later, his effort is showing a noticeable pulse. Meanwhile, Patrick is discovering a presidential campaign can be better cover than joining the Witness Protection Program. The degree of his […]

The Post-Kamala Chessboard

Something like a dozen candidates have dropped out. Kamala Harris was the first to matter (apologies to Beto.) Beyond giving journalists a chance to write inside the wreckage pieces, there are enough voters now up for grabs to make a difference. Sure, she was at 4ish% nationally, and not in double-digits anywhere, but where her […]

Warren on the Brink

Please throw this back in my face if President Warren is inaugurated 14 months from now, but she’s in legit trouble at the moment. A new national survey from Quinnipiac is out. Before we continue, yes, I’m aware this is a single data point. I’m further aware Warren is the top second place choice of […]