State of the States: Vermont

Quick, what’s the state that has historically supported Republicans the most? That’s right! The home of Ben & Jerry’s and Bernie Sanders. The land of maple syrup and green mountains. The place with the progressive bastions of Burlington (where Bernie was mayor) and Brattleboro (pretend Berkeley was a giant B&B.) Yes, Vermont has given more […]

State of the States: Arizona

Looks like Arizona is front and center from now until November 3 (plus however long it takes them to count.) Of all the traditionally red states (AZ has voted for a Democrat only once since 1948), it looks like the best opportunity for Joe Biden to flip. He’s got a stronger lead there than in […]

State of the States: West Virginia

In 1996, Bill Clinton won West Virginia by 15 points. In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost West Virginia by 42 points. This wasn’t a fluke. It was the logical conclusion of a pattern: 1996: D+6 2000: R+7 2004: R+10 2008: R+20 2012: R+31 2016: R+44 In case you’re wondering, this isn’t normal. States and regions change […]

State of the States: Oregon

Even if you’ve never watched an episode of Portlandia, your political image of Oregon is likely very blue. It seems like a very liberal/progressive place, one beyond allergic to Donald Trump. Not quite. Joe Biden will win there in November. But by 12 points, maybe, maybe 15 or 16, not the 30+ in California or […]

State of the States: Alaska

Alaska is red, violets are blue. Some things just are. Until they’re not. In the case of the 49th State, the only one that can make Texas look mini, I was preparing to write a quick piece about how it’s definitely in Donald Trump’s column, with a quick aside about the old election that moved […]

State of the States: Texas

Almost twenty years ago, political demographer Ruy Teixeira and journalist John Judis wrote a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority. The thesis is that by combining women, racial and ethnic minorities, and knowledge workers, Democrats could create an enduring governing majority. This is exactly what the Democratic coalition in blue places looks like these days. […]

State of the States: Rhode Island

We’re used to thinking about religion impacting voting. The Republican capture of the evangelical vote over the past 40 years is the single biggest factor in the past several GOP victories. As Trump haters lament the success the thrice-married, porn star paying, not sure how to hold a bible president continues to have with this […]

State of the States: Wyoming

When you think of the perfect state for Donald Trump, Wyoming probably isn’t your first thought, and not just because the state ranks with Delaware on the list of states many Americans forget about when trying to list all the states. But it was his best state in 2016, and there’s no reason to think […]

State of the States: Florida

For any Democrats who were still under the illusion this was going to be easy, a new Florida poll from NBC/Marist ended that consideration yesterday. Among likely voters it was a dead heat, 48/48. Immediately, memories of disappointments in 2016 and 2000 returned, along with various statewide contests, most recently the 2018 GOP wins for […]