The AOC Effect?

Bernie Sanders woke up today in very good political shape. He’s at or near the lead in the first three states. He’s ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the national polling averages. The betting markets have him as the second most likely nominee. Sure, Joe Biden is still the favorite, but Bernie is well positioned. If […]

Seven Up

The debate contestants for next week are mostly officially locked in. Andrew Yang has qualified. Tulsi Gabbard has decided she doesn’t want to play even if she gets the final 4% survey she needs. Cory Booker has zero hope. We’ll have a field of seven: Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar […]

A Tale of Two Launches

A few weeks ago, Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick concluded the 2020 Democratic contest couldn’t survive without them. Somewhere north of $60 million in Bloomberg dollars later, his effort is showing a noticeable pulse. Meanwhile, Patrick is discovering a presidential campaign can be better cover than joining the Witness Protection Program. The degree of his […]

The Post-Kamala Chessboard

Something like a dozen candidates have dropped out. Kamala Harris was the first to matter (apologies to Beto.) Beyond giving journalists a chance to write inside the wreckage pieces, there are enough voters now up for grabs to make a difference. Sure, she was at 4ish% nationally, and not in double-digits anywhere, but where her […]

Requiem for a Candidate: Kamala Harris

Running for president is hard. Kamala Harris is the proof. And you don’t know if someone can do it until they do. If you’d given me two draft picks in January, I’d have chosen Kamala and Beto. Neither made it to Iowa. Some expert, eh? So what happened? When she began, I figured this might […]

Pete’s Precedents (Part One)

Pete Buttigieg likes reminding voters there was “another young guy with a funny name” who won Iowa and went on to take the nomination and presidency. Linking yourself to a still-popular recent president is smart. And with many voters already liking Mayor Pete, anything he can do to build plausibility gets him a step closer […]

Moneyball

A short time ago, I confidently asserted Michael Bloomberg wouldn’t actually try this. Once he looked at the polls and saw he wasn’t making a dent, he’d gracefully retreat and hope we didn’t notice he said he might run yet again. The first week went as I figured. He sorta announced, the NYC-DC press hyperventilated, […]

Warren on the Brink

Please throw this back in my face if President Warren is inaugurated 14 months from now, but she’s in legit trouble at the moment. A new national survey from Quinnipiac is out. Before we continue, yes, I’m aware this is a single data point. I’m further aware Warren is the top second place choice of […]

Did the Debate Matter?

Enough to overpower the Impeachment hearings? Hell no. Today’s revelations will overpower whatever the world remembers from the debate. Yesterday, observers were already burned out from the hearings before the debate started. The universe of people who are super excited about the Democratic nomination contest, but don’t care about the hearings is very small. And […]