Measuring for Nevada

As we figured, it’s going to take some alchemy to turn the limited poll numbers (we have one current survey at the moment) in to any sort of Nevada prediction. But we’re now less than a week from Caucus Day, and early caucusing began yesterday, so damn the consequences of guessing. It’s time to start […]

Andrew Yang and the End of Rules

Andrew Yang is gone from the presidential race. But not forgotten. His competitors were very quick to praise and eulogize his campaign, recognizing his endorsement would be one of the few non-Obama ones of value. How did we get here? How did someone who wasn’t famous, wasn’t crazy wealthy, and didn’t have traditional credentials wind […]

Nevada Prospectus

Iowa and New Hampshire have mattered for generations. Nevada is new. And more important this time than ever. There’s a ton to unpack here, so lets begin! How this caucus works: Remember Iowa? Nevada has already decided to ditch the App of Doom, and should be able to announce results before 2028. Otherwise, this one […]

Schrödinger’s Biden

I’m not going to claim I truly understand the concept behind Schrödinger’s cat. There’s a cat, a box, some poison, and a Geiger counter. The cat is in the box, the Geiger counter is waiting to identify radiation, and at such point, the glass around the poison is shattered, killing the cat. But from the […]

New Hampshire Recap: Klobucharge

Finishing third isn’t normally exciting. Candidates talk about there being three tickets out of Iowa or New Hampshire, but those saying that are usually deluding themselves or hoping to chisel some final donations before it’s too late. John Kasich finished second in the 2016 New Hampshire GOP contest and managed to parlay that into Dead […]

New Hampshire Preview: Final Predictions

The time has come. By the time you read this, they’ll have already begun voting in Dixville Notch, NH. As they continue reviewing precincts in Iowa, we’re almost guaranteed to know who won New Hampshire before there’s an undisputed winner of the Iowa State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs.) Nevada is fixing to have a lot of […]

Candidate Heat Check: Pre-New Hampshire Edition

When we last checked temperatures, Pete Buttigieg was chilly. His poll numbers indicated he wasn’t going to get a win in Iowa. At worst, he got a draw, so he’ll measure much warmer this time. Going the other way, Joe Biden’s nomination chances have iced significantly. We have our first “on-fire” designation, awarded to Bernie […]

New Hampshire Debate Preview: Fighting for Their Political Lives

The 2020 Democratic debate cycle has, well, there’s no other way to put it, it’s sucked. Several of these in, and the biggest moment was Kamala Harris calling out Joe Biden on busing. It resonated so well that she’s been out of the race for two months. Maybe the next most memorable thing was Pete […]

Too Close to Know

If anyone tells you they know who really won the 2000 Presidential Election, they’re lying to you, lying to themselves, or both. Technically, George W. Bush won Florida, and thus the presidency by 537 votes as per the final recount. But as anyone who was around for the comedy of errors and hanging chads remembers, […]

The Delay Didn’t Hurt Pete

By the time you read this, Iowa may have finally reported all results from all precincts. At the moment I type this, 96% are in, and Pete Buttigieg is still leading Bernie Sanders by a narrow margin in State Delegate Equivalents, the official currency for declaring a caucus winner. He’s going to hold on. Neither […]