Debate Preview: A Debate for Old Men

This debate is about two candidates. Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg. The others are garnish. Props. Facilitators. They exist merely to test our two protagonists. But what about Elizabeth Warren? See above. If Bloomie can’t handle her assault after getting a practice round, then he and his half-billion dollars (and counting) project is doomed. The […]

The Power of Caucus Math

As I type this, 88% of Nevada precincts have reported. Close enough to done for us to look under the hood a bit. And we’re finding the conversion from first alignment (i.e. popular vote), to final alignment, to County Caucus Delegates, changes the story. A lot. If it weren’t for Bernie Sanders, we’d lack this […]

Nevada Recap: Tio Bernie!

So they’re still not done counting. But it’s plenty clear who won. When the Associated Press calls the caucus for you with 4% of precincts reporting, you had a good day. Unlike Iowa, where Bernie Sanders underperformed his polls by a couple points, and lost out to Pete Buttigieg by the narrowest imaginable margin on […]

Nevada Preview: Final Predictions

Nevada polling is notoriously shaky. Then there’s the early voters. Did they all tell pollsters the truth about who they picked? How many more will turn out today? Was the 70,000ish early vote half of the total? More? Less? If you think Elizabeth Warren was helped by the debate, this matters. A lot. Enough temporizing. […]

Turnout!

If you’ve heard Bernie Sanders speak for more than a minute, you know he hates billionaires and plans to implement his political revolution by turning out millions of first-time voters. These newbies will propel him to the Democratic nomination, boost him past Donald Trump, and give Senate candidates a critical push to win Democratic control, […]

Debate Prep: Nobody Likes Mike

There’s one story and one story only. The entrance of Mike Bloomberg, once doubted by many (including me), now surging in the polls, to the debate stage. He should help ratings. Viewership for the past couple debates has run at 30% of the level for the introductory round. It seems voters have had their fill. […]

Debatable Choices

Not everyone who wants to participate in a presidential debate can. I probably shouldn’t be included, and not just because I haven’t filed my paperwork as a candidate yet. The Democratic National Committee exists in part to help officiate this sort of thing. No matter what they do, somebody loses out. Somebody will have a […]

Measuring for Nevada

As we figured, it’s going to take some alchemy to turn the limited poll numbers (we have one current survey at the moment) in to any sort of Nevada prediction. But we’re now less than a week from Caucus Day, and early caucusing began yesterday, so damn the consequences of guessing. It’s time to start […]

Andrew Yang and the End of Rules

Andrew Yang is gone from the presidential race. But not forgotten. His competitors were very quick to praise and eulogize his campaign, recognizing his endorsement would be one of the few non-Obama ones of value. How did we get here? How did someone who wasn’t famous, wasn’t crazy wealthy, and didn’t have traditional credentials wind […]

Nevada Prospectus

Iowa and New Hampshire have mattered for generations. Nevada is new. And more important this time than ever. There’s a ton to unpack here, so lets begin! How this caucus works: Remember Iowa? Nevada has already decided to ditch the App of Doom, and should be able to announce results before 2028. Otherwise, this one […]