Who’s Out Next?

We know who the Big Three are. Joe Biden continues to defy expectations of his collapse. Elizabeth Warren strengthens her position daily. Bernie Sanders isn’t going away. I still owe you more detailed breakdowns on their chances. Bernie still has a tougher path than the other two, but he’s virtually guaranteed to stick around most, […]

Flies on an Elephant’s Back

Bill Weld announced his Republican primary challenge months ago. As of yesterday morning, Joe Walsh is in. Mark Sanford is thinking about it, and will decide in the next week or two. Should Donald Trump be concerned? Break out in a cold sweat? Or mostly disregard? A primary challenge is deadly. Since primaries were invented […]

Being a Billionaire Doesn’t Suck

The Democratic electorate has no interest in John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Jay Inslee, or Steve Bullock. Four current or very recent governors or senators, popular with their home states. The most current estimates have all four missing the next round of debates. You need four qualifying polls of two percent or higher. These four individuals […]

So When Do the Standings Change?

This isn’t normal. Ever since the initial dislocation from Joe Biden jumping in wore off, nothing has moved very much. In that time, we’ve seen two rounds of debates, a quarterly fundraising report, and all sorts of regular campaign stuff. Yet, with few exceptions, we’re where we were three months ago. If you tour the […]

The Generation Chasm

79 80 78 76 77 70 The median American is 37.7 years old. The median voter is 52. The above numbers are ages. They belong to the Speaker of the House, House Majority Leader, House Majority Whip, and 3 of the 4 leading Democratic presidential candidates. Not all Septuagenarians are created equally. Bernie Sanders is […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 2)

In Part 1, we began breaking down how the candidates are building a base for themselves. Joe Biden went through the MRI first. Now on to a few other leading contenders: Kamala Harris: Prior to the debate, Harris wasn’t building that much of a base with any group of voters. This has changed. Her lead […]

Debate Prep (Night One): Standing Room Only

Welcome to the logical conclusion of what George McGovern wrought. This is the thirteenth presidential cycle since the Democratic Party changed their nomination rules for 1972 and upended how presidential candidates are chosen by their parties. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey controversially won the Democratic nomination without competing in a single contest prior to the convention. […]

Why the World Needs Another Political Blog

Every four years, I start this same quest. To write about the upcoming presidential election as clearly and objectively as possible, offering analysis and thoughts that aren’t published anywhere else yet. Basically, the ultimate fool’s errand. Clarity is difficult. Objectivity virtually impossible. And what are the odds of saying truly new things? Each presidential cycle, […]