Iowa Recap (No, I’m Not Waiting for All Precincts)

Hi! Fun last 24 hours, eh? I have lots to say on the future of the Iowa Caucus, what recent disaster this mess reminds me of, and a pile of other things, but this can all wait until we take a look at the data we have and the immediate lessons from it as it […]

Iowa Preview: Final Predictions

Greetings. It’s finally time. In less than 24 hours, the first real voting of the 2020 Presidential Season will happen. This year, I get to make three sets of predictions. Unlike past Iowa caucuses, where only the percentage and amount of State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs) was released, this time, we’ll get a head count of […]

Candidate Heat Check: Pre-Iowa Edition

It’s time for another look at who’s hot and who’s not. These temperature readings are one part recent data, one part expectations, and one part alchemy. As was the case last time, no candidates are “on fire.” Bernie Sanders is climbing in the polls, and his odds are improving, but until he actually wins Iowa, […]

Which Score Counts?

Iowa winnows. We know this. Many candidates contest the caucus. A few survive. The coveted “tickets out of Iowa” always sell out quickly. This is usually extra true on the Democratic side. Where Republicans just add up the amount of supporters each candidate has, Democrats have a 15% viability test in each caucus precinct (Apologies […]

How Long Will Warren Persist?

A few months ago, when Elizabeth Warren was challenging Joe Biden at the top of national polls, leading in Iowa and sometimes New Hampshire, and the darling of betting markets, the question was how long Bernie Sanders would stick around as a spoiler. It didn’t look like he could win, but he’d have money to […]

How Bloomberg Wins

Now that he’s climbed to fourth place in the national poll averages, it’s time for the Michael Bloomberg, Democratic Nominee exercise. A few quick reminders. This isn’t likely to happen. Put your money on Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders if the odds for them are the same as Mike. Elizabeth Warren is more likely too. […]

Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

There’s Something Happening Here (Maybe)

Woke up Monday morning to a Neighborhood Research and Media Iowa poll that looked like an outlier. When I clicked through for the crosstabs, and saw Breitbart News had uploaded it for distribution, my suspicions increased. The commentary accompanying the data wasn’t in the tone one hears from most pollsters. And the conclusions didn’t quite […]

Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]

2024: A Political Odyssey

It seems like the 2020 campaign has already gone on forever. Donald Trump hasn’t stopped campaigning since the day he was inaugurated. Most of the Democratic contenders have been officially or semi-officially running for over a year. John Delaney, who, though you didn’t realize it, is still running, declared his candidacy on July 28, 2017. […]