It seems like the 2020 campaign has already gone on forever. Donald Trump hasn’t stopped campaigning since the day he was inaugurated. Most of the Democratic contenders have been officially or semi-officially running for over a year. John Delaney, who, though you didn’t realize it, is still running, declared his candidacy on July 28, 2017. Andrew Yang, who began as an unknown and is now relevant, joined him on November 6, 2017. Twenty seven others followed them. More than half are already gone.
Finally, at long last, voting begins soon in Iowa. We still have almost 10 months until the general election. I’ll understand if you aren’t ready to think about 2024 just yet. Only thing is, the next campaign season has already begun. And if you think 2020 is messy, or 2016 was a little overwhelming, just wait.
Let’s stipulate that Trump has about a 50/50 chance of re-election. Depending on who you are, you’ll think this is too high or too low. This is where the betting markets have it right now. The swing states are really close. There’s no indication the Electoral College will lean more Democratic than last time. Assuming Trump wins, there will be an open nomination on both sides in 2024. Things get started extra early when a president can’t run for re-election. Continue reading “2024: A Political Odyssey”