Super Tuesday Update: CA, MA, MN, TX—Not So Fast

Yesterday, I innocently thought it was safe to start writing Super Tuesday previews. And posting them. First Pete Buttigieg said goodbye. Ok, update the first one, edit the second. Wait to do anything else. Then Amy Klobuchar exited. Both are endorsing Joe Biden tonight. Which means a good amount of what was said yesterday needs […]

Super Tuesday Preview: MA, MN, VT—Favorite Daughters (and a Son)

Once upon a time, in a nomination system far, far away, there was something called a favorite son. Nominations were decided at party conventions. Some states did have primaries, but many didn’t. Often, even when there was a primary, the active candidates wouldn’t contest it. The state party would put up a popular governor or […]

Nevada Preview: Final Predictions

Nevada polling is notoriously shaky. Then there’s the early voters. Did they all tell pollsters the truth about who they picked? How many more will turn out today? Was the 70,000ish early vote half of the total? More? Less? If you think Elizabeth Warren was helped by the debate, this matters. A lot. Enough temporizing. […]

New Hampshire Recap: Klobucharge

Finishing third isn’t normally exciting. Candidates talk about there being three tickets out of Iowa or New Hampshire, but those saying that are usually deluding themselves or hoping to chisel some final donations before it’s too late. John Kasich finished second in the 2016 New Hampshire GOP contest and managed to parlay that into Dead […]

New Hampshire Debate Preview: Fighting for Their Political Lives

The 2020 Democratic debate cycle has, well, there’s no other way to put it, it’s sucked. Several of these in, and the biggest moment was Kamala Harris calling out Joe Biden on busing. It resonated so well that she’s been out of the race for two months. Maybe the next most memorable thing was Pete […]

Iowa Recap (No, I’m Not Waiting for All Precincts)

Hi! Fun last 24 hours, eh? I have lots to say on the future of the Iowa Caucus, what recent disaster this mess reminds me of, and a pile of other things, but this can all wait until we take a look at the data we have and the immediate lessons from it as it […]

Which Score Counts?

Iowa winnows. We know this. Many candidates contest the caucus. A few survive. The coveted “tickets out of Iowa” always sell out quickly. This is usually extra true on the Democratic side. Where Republicans just add up the amount of supporters each candidate has, Democrats have a 15% viability test in each caucus precinct (Apologies […]

Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Who Are Bloomberg’s Voters?

Hi! We’re going to do something we shouldn’t. Use a single poll to answer questions about voter support. Partly I’m lazy. Also, I’m guilty of confirmation bias. The new Quinnipiac poll looks very plausible, and it’s a well-respected survey. Plus the numbers are going to let me work with a narrative that makes sense. Now […]

Lane Four is Getting Crowded Again

Joe Biden has a solid constituency. So does Bernie Sanders. As does Elizabeth Warren. We’ve known this for months. Somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the primary electorate would prefer another option though. If one candidate can control most of these voters, they have a very good path to the nomination. If support winds […]