Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Something’s Gotta Give

Andrew Yang raised $16.5 million last quarter. That’s a lot. Bernie Sanders pulled in $34.5 mil, and Mayor Pete was good for $24.7, but Yang will finish ahead of established politicians like Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker, and in the same range as Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. He’s gaining momentum. In the third quarter, […]

25,000 Voters May Choose the Nominee

There are 330 millionish Americans these days. About ten thousand of them will determine the trajectory of the Democratic nomination race. The all-time record for turnout is (approximately–exact voter count isn’t released) 240,000, set during the 2008 Obama-Hillary matchup. There’s a lot of interest this time, but I’d bet the under. Let’s say the weather […]

Seven Up

The debate contestants for next week are mostly officially locked in. Andrew Yang has qualified. Tulsi Gabbard has decided she doesn’t want to play even if she gets the final 4% survey she needs. Cory Booker has zero hope. We’ll have a field of seven: Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar […]

Did the Debate Matter?

Enough to overpower the Impeachment hearings? Hell no. Today’s revelations will overpower whatever the world remembers from the debate. Yesterday, observers were already burned out from the hearings before the debate started. The universe of people who are super excited about the Democratic nomination contest, but don’t care about the hearings is very small. And […]

Who’s Taking the Extra Seat at the Table?

Appearances often deceive. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are combining for more than 50% in most national polls. They’re as tied as you can be right now. The Real Clear Politics average has him at 26.5%, her at 26.0%. Warren leads more often, Biden by larger margins when he’s ahead. By most metrics, it’s clearly […]

The Heartbeat of the Democratic Party

Bernie Sanders is recovering from the procedure that put two stents in one of his arteries. It’s taken a couple days, but the media is finally using correct terminology. He’s tweeting about why Medicare for All is necessary. The campaign has confirmed he will attend the October 15 debate in Ohio. We can now safely […]

Who Had a Good Quarter?

Time for the end of quarter report card. The criteria is simple. If you’d talked to the candidate and/or their team on June 30, told them their status on September 30 would be as it is now and they would have leapt to their feet clicking their heels together, they get an A. The more […]

State of the Race: Team Afterthought

With Bill deBlasio’s departure, there are 19 declared candidates. We covered the Big 2.75 on Monday. Then we explored the Next Five, who will either form a single contender by the end of Iowa caucus proceedings or all fade into the mist. This leaves 11 others, none of whom will be the Democratic nominee, all […]

Debate Prep: Five Questions

Yes, debates are kinda overrated. No, they’re not usually as meaningless as the first two Democratic rounds. In two debates over four nights, we’ve see a Kamala Harris bubble which quickly lost helium, and a related panic over Joe Biden, which soon subsided. Elizabeth Warren probably helped her standing by performing well. Though there’s no […]