What Matters in Iowa (Part 3–Best Practices)

Hi! If you’re just joining our journey to the center of the Iowa caucus, please consider reading the first piece—an overview, and the second, which covers the positive and negative signs that indicate how a candidate will do on Caucus Day. Our next project is examining ways candidates can improve their standing. How they can […]

When Polls Collide: Is Mayor Pete Ahead or Fifth in Iowa?

25%, 1st Place 10%, 5th Place 6%, 5th Place Average: 13.7%, 4th Place Hmmmmmm. Does the truth really lie somewhere in between the data points? Or are one of the extremes more on target? Polling averages exist for a good reason. Surveys have a margin of error. It’s too easy to read too much into […]

What Matters in Iowa (Part 2–How to Make Predictions)

Before we get rolling here, you might want to check out Part 1. It’s not mandatory. It is helpful. The reason we’re talking about the February 2020 Iowa Caucus in July 2019 is because I think we can already get an idea of who might win. The Hawkeye State is remarkably consistent. From year-to-year, and […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 2)

In Part 1, we began breaking down how the candidates are building a base for themselves. Joe Biden went through the MRI first. Now on to a few other leading contenders: Kamala Harris: Prior to the debate, Harris wasn’t building that much of a base with any group of voters. This has changed. Her lead […]

Debate Recap: (Night Two) The Kamala Show

Other things happened, but Kamala Harris’ evisceration of Joe Biden will get 90% of the replays over the next 24-48 hours. She’ll move up the most in polls. He’ll get the most questions about his viability. This makes for a quicker than usual recap, as the lower tier candidates were buried in the fallout. Moved […]

Debate Prep: (Night Two) The Main Event

When the lineups were announced, this was the night everyone was more interested in. As many as 18 million people saw last night’s contest. That’s about 75% of the audience for Donald Trump’s debate debut in 2015, and the third or fourth highest audience for any primary debate. Whether they set a new record tonight […]