Who’s Taking the Extra Seat at the Table?

Appearances often deceive. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are combining for more than 50% in most national polls. They’re as tied as you can be right now. The Real Clear Politics average has him at 26.5%, her at 26.0%. Warren leads more often, Biden by larger margins when he’s ahead. By most metrics, it’s clearly […]

Who Had a Good Quarter?

Time for the end of quarter report card. The criteria is simple. If you’d talked to the candidate and/or their team on June 30, told them their status on September 30 would be as it is now and they would have leapt to their feet clicking their heels together, they get an A. The more […]

State of the Race: Door #4

If we believe the odds, there’s at least an 80% chance the Democratic nominee is Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Bernie Sanders. You might think the number is even higher. But none are in the sort of unassailable position that guarantees nomination. If you get anywhere near even odds on those three against the field, […]

Sound Check

Yesterday, your intrepid correspondent forced himself to watch all ten candidates at the CNN Climate Crisis Town Hall. This does not mean I watched all 40 minutes of each. Not even close. A minimum of 7 to 10 minutes, sometimes a lot more. With no candidates directly facing off, this wasn’t like a debate. But […]

In Case of Emergency, Break Glass

Let’s talk about Cory Booker. Someone needs to. His campaign is lonely. There’s the front-runner, Joe Biden. And the Big Three, which brings Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders in. Also the Top Five, including Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, both of whom were previously closer to the leaders than they are now. Booker is not […]

Who’s Out Next?

We know who the Big Three are. Joe Biden continues to defy expectations of his collapse. Elizabeth Warren strengthens her position daily. Bernie Sanders isn’t going away. I still owe you more detailed breakdowns on their chances. Bernie still has a tougher path than the other two, but he’s virtually guaranteed to stick around most, […]

10 is a Crowd

Tom Steyer missed the September debate cut. His strategy of advertising in early voting states to get the necessary poll results, which your correspondent knew would work, didn’t. He’s still one 2% survey short. No new qualifying polls were released in the past couple weeks. He’ll qualify for October, the instant another DNC-certified Iowa, New […]

So When Do the Standings Change?

This isn’t normal. Ever since the initial dislocation from Joe Biden jumping in wore off, nothing has moved very much. In that time, we’ve seen two rounds of debates, a quarterly fundraising report, and all sorts of regular campaign stuff. Yet, with few exceptions, we’re where we were three months ago. If you tour the […]

Rumors of Biden’s Demise Were Greatly Exaggerated

Remember how Kamala Harris impaled Joe Biden in the debate? Remember how his poll numbers dropped in the following few days? Don’t look now, but the most recent numbers show Biden is exactly where he was before any of that happened. Let’s track his results through a few major polls over the past couple months. […]

Polls Across America: Southern Comfort

At the exact moment I’m typing this, things are looking up for Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. He may face plant again in the next debate, but he’s in first place in every poll taken in the past week that FiveThirtyEight has posted. And they post a lot more polls than Real Clear Politics does. We’re […]