During his 2020 primary campaign, (which now seems 1,000 years ago) Pete Buttigieg claimed electoral legitimacy because he won re-election being openly gay in “Mike Pence’s Indiana.” It’s a good setup. Pence isn’t exactly gay-friendly. Indiana is red. It’s a great David v. Goliath tale. It was also some quality political prestidigitation. South Bend does […]
Tag Archives: Donald Trump
State of the States: Vermont
Quick, what’s the state that has historically supported Republicans the most? That’s right! The home of Ben & Jerry’s and Bernie Sanders. The land of maple syrup and green mountains. The place with the progressive bastions of Burlington (where Bernie was mayor) and Brattleboro (pretend Berkeley was a giant B&B.) Yes, Vermont has given more […]
Earthquake
As I was getting ready to work on a post about Indiana or Louisiana (hadn’t figured out which), the news about the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg reached the world. Suddenly, trying to sort out why FDR and the election of 1932 pushed Indiana from purple to red wasn’t urgent. It’s always a big deal […]
State of the States: Arizona
Looks like Arizona is front and center from now until November 3 (plus however long it takes them to count.) Of all the traditionally red states (AZ has voted for a Democrat only once since 1948), it looks like the best opportunity for Joe Biden to flip. He’s got a stronger lead there than in […]
State of the States: West Virginia
In 1996, Bill Clinton won West Virginia by 15 points. In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost West Virginia by 42 points. This wasn’t a fluke. It was the logical conclusion of a pattern: 1996: D+6 2000: R+7 2004: R+10 2008: R+20 2012: R+31 2016: R+44 In case you’re wondering, this isn’t normal. States and regions change […]
State of the States: Oregon
Even if you’ve never watched an episode of Portlandia, your political image of Oregon is likely very blue. It seems like a very liberal/progressive place, one beyond allergic to Donald Trump. Not quite. Joe Biden will win there in November. But by 12 points, maybe, maybe 15 or 16, not the 30+ in California or […]
State of the States: Alaska
Alaska is red, violets are blue. Some things just are. Until they’re not. In the case of the 49th State, the only one that can make Texas look mini, I was preparing to write a quick piece about how it’s definitely in Donald Trump’s column, with a quick aside about the old election that moved […]
State of the States: Texas
Almost twenty years ago, political demographer Ruy Teixeira and journalist John Judis wrote a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority. The thesis is that by combining women, racial and ethnic minorities, and knowledge workers, Democrats could create an enduring governing majority. This is exactly what the Democratic coalition in blue places looks like these days. […]
State of the States: Rhode Island
We’re used to thinking about religion impacting voting. The Republican capture of the evangelical vote over the past 40 years is the single biggest factor in the past several GOP victories. As Trump haters lament the success the thrice-married, porn star paying, not sure how to hold a bible president continues to have with this […]
State of the States: Iowa
Donald Trump’s Iowa victory in 2016 was a big surprise. Not that he won. Several polls showed him with a lead, and George W. Bush won the state in 2004 and lost by a sliver in 2000, so it’s not like Iowa was part of the supposed Blue Wall. It was the margin. Nine points, […]
