How Long Will Warren Persist?

A few months ago, when Elizabeth Warren was challenging Joe Biden at the top of national polls, leading in Iowa and sometimes New Hampshire, and the darling of betting markets, the question was how long Bernie Sanders would stick around as a spoiler. It didn’t look like he could win, but he’d have money to […]

Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]

Did the Debate Matter?

I wondered this frequently as I suffered through the 130 minutes or so. For the last couple contests in 2019, I didn’t expect much. These contests can burn a viewer out, and I was fried. Your correspondent endured out of duty more than curiosity. Some time passed, I forgot how painful these can be. It’s […]

Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Is Winning Still Everything?

Primaries are about winning. Frequently, a candidate winning or losing a single state by a few points completely changes the trajectory of the contest. In 2016, Bernie Sanders put a good scare into Hillary Clinton. He’d have struggled to win no matter what, but losing Iowa 49.9% to 49.6% and finishing a few points behind […]

Julian’s Choice

You might have missed this with Iran boiling and all, but last week Julian Castro exited the 2020 Democratic nomination contest, and this week he endorsed Elizabeth Warren. Let’s face it. There’s not much interest in Mr. Castro. I debated picking a different headline to increase the odds of getting you to read this. He […]

Why I’m Ignoring Impeachment

If you’ve read this blog for more than a minute, you are doing so despite the lack of impeachment coverage. It’s not that I don’t care. We only get an impeachment every couple of decades. But it’s not moving the needle. Trump was right. He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue without his supporters being […]

25,000 Voters May Choose the Nominee

There are 330 millionish Americans these days. About ten thousand of them will determine the trajectory of the Democratic nomination race. The all-time record for turnout is (approximately–exact voter count isn’t released) 240,000, set during the 2008 Obama-Hillary matchup. There’s a lot of interest this time, but I’d bet the under. Let’s say the weather […]

How Bernie Wins (Part One)

A year ago, I thought Bernie Sanders had almost no chance at the nomination. You only get to be an insurgent once. He pushed Hillary Clinton in large part because he was the only vessel to protest her coronation. Many other candidates had taken up key parts of his platform. It was a victory for […]