State of the Race: The Big 2.75

Greetings! It’s time to check back in on our leading contenders. As usual, most of the news revolves around Joe Biden. As usual most of the positive vibes belong to Elizabeth Warren. As usual, Bernie Sanders is being dismissed. Biden is exactly where we left him a few weeks ago. After a slight blip, his […]

Berning the Skeptics

I wasn’t a believer either. The 2016 version of Bernie Sanders followed an insurgent model that doesn’t play well as an encore. If you’ve ever seen Hangover 2, you know a sequel with the same plot as the original falls flat. Sure, he had a base of true believers, but many of his primary voters […]

Biden Doesn’t Need Iowa. Warren Does.

The Biden campaign is downplaying the necessity of winning Iowa. The media is treating this as an early surrender, a sign of weakness. We’ll save the efficacy of Biden campaign strategy and strategic leaking for another day. Today I’m here to agree with Team Biden. He doesn’t need to win Iowa. Elizabeth Warren does. Sorry […]

What Matters in Iowa (Part 3–Best Practices)

Hi! If you’re just joining our journey to the center of the Iowa caucus, please consider reading the first piece—an overview, and the second, which covers the positive and negative signs that indicate how a candidate will do on Caucus Day. Our next project is examining ways candidates can improve their standing. How they can […]

What Matters in Iowa (Part 2–How to Make Predictions)

Before we get rolling here, you might want to check out Part 1. It’s not mandatory. It is helpful. The reason we’re talking about the February 2020 Iowa Caucus in July 2019 is because I think we can already get an idea of who might win. The Hawkeye State is remarkably consistent. From year-to-year, and […]

What Matters in Iowa (Part 1–An Overview)

Iowa matters. A lot. The modern primary era began in 1972. Since then, only one nominee in either party has finished lower than third in a contested Iowa caucus. Every nominee who finished third or lower then won New Hampshire. As did almost all second place finishers. As much as Donald Trump upended the universe […]