What Matters in Iowa (Part 2–How to Make Predictions)

Before we get rolling here, you might want to check out Part 1. It’s not mandatory. It is helpful. The reason we’re talking about the February 2020 Iowa Caucus in July 2019 is because I think we can already get an idea of who might win. The Hawkeye State is remarkably consistent. From year-to-year, and […]

All Your Base Are Belong to Us (Part 1)

It’s easy to get anxious looking for post-debate poll results. At least it’s easy for me. A new survey from CNN taken 6/28-6/30 has some striking results. The most visible item is found on the top line: Biden 22% (down 10 from 5/28-5/30) Harris 17% (up 9) Warren 15% (up 8) Sanders 14% (down 4) […]

Debate Recap: (Night Two) The Kamala Show

Other things happened, but Kamala Harris’ evisceration of Joe Biden will get 90% of the replays over the next 24-48 hours. She’ll move up the most in polls. He’ll get the most questions about his viability. This makes for a quicker than usual recap, as the lower tier candidates were buried in the fallout. Moved […]

Debate Prep: (Night Two) The Main Event

When the lineups were announced, this was the night everyone was more interested in. As many as 18 million people saw last night’s contest. That’s about 75% of the audience for Donald Trump’s debate debut in 2015, and the third or fourth highest audience for any primary debate. Whether they set a new record tonight […]