Do the Numbers Tell Us Who Won the Last Debate?

Earlier in the week, we got a couple of updated polls from Iowa, which I used as an excuse to jump to a few conclusions. Now we have enough post-debate national surveys to take another look. Reminder: Iowa looked favorable for Amy Klobuchar, negative for Bernie Sanders, and mostly neutral for everyone else. Though Bernie’s […]

Iowa Prospectus

We don’t have as much data as I’d like, but with the Seltzer poll dropping yesterday, there are two current Iowa Caucus surveys, one of which is considered the gold standard, and the other at least worth paying attention to. Also, they’re voting in a little over three weeks, so it’s time to take a […]

Is Winning Still Everything?

Primaries are about winning. Frequently, a candidate winning or losing a single state by a few points completely changes the trajectory of the contest. In 2016, Bernie Sanders put a good scare into Hillary Clinton. He’d have struggled to win no matter what, but losing Iowa 49.9% to 49.6% and finishing a few points behind […]

Julian’s Choice

You might have missed this with Iran boiling and all, but last week Julian Castro exited the 2020 Democratic nomination contest, and this week he endorsed Elizabeth Warren. Let’s face it. There’s not much interest in Mr. Castro. I debated picking a different headline to increase the odds of getting you to read this. He […]

Pre-Debate Panic Check

In case you’ve been distracted with the whole impeaching the president thing, there’s a Democratic debate coming up. Thursday, 12/19 at 8pm Eastern to be precise. It’s the first West Coast event, taking place at Loyola Marymount University, after a labor dispute caused a move from the original venue at UCLA. Until Tuesday, another labor […]

Who Are Bloomberg’s Voters?

Hi! We’re going to do something we shouldn’t. Use a single poll to answer questions about voter support. Partly I’m lazy. Also, I’m guilty of confirmation bias. The new Quinnipiac poll looks very plausible, and it’s a well-respected survey. Plus the numbers are going to let me work with a narrative that makes sense. Now […]

Lane Four is Getting Crowded Again

Joe Biden has a solid constituency. So does Bernie Sanders. As does Elizabeth Warren. We’ve known this for months. Somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the primary electorate would prefer another option though. If one candidate can control most of these voters, they have a very good path to the nomination. If support winds […]

The AOC Effect?

Bernie Sanders woke up today in very good political shape. He’s at or near the lead in the first three states. He’s ahead of Elizabeth Warren in the national polling averages. The betting markets have him as the second most likely nominee. Sure, Joe Biden is still the favorite, but Bernie is well positioned. If […]

Pete’s Precedents (Part One)

Pete Buttigieg likes reminding voters there was “another young guy with a funny name” who won Iowa and went on to take the nomination and presidency. Linking yourself to a still-popular recent president is smart. And with many voters already liking Mayor Pete, anything he can do to build plausibility gets him a step closer […]

Warren on the Brink

Please throw this back in my face if President Warren is inaugurated 14 months from now, but she’s in legit trouble at the moment. A new national survey from Quinnipiac is out. Before we continue, yes, I’m aware this is a single data point. I’m further aware Warren is the top second place choice of […]