Super Tuesday Watch: Bernie vs. Bernie

Greetings, and happy Super Tuesday! As I type this, Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Massachusetts are in Joe Biden’s column. Vermont, Colorado, and Utah are going to Bernie Sanders. Maine is separated by like three votes. Texas is showing a Sanders lead, but it’s still very much a toss-up. The biggest […]

Super Tuesday Update: CA, MA, MN, TX—Not So Fast

Yesterday, I innocently thought it was safe to start writing Super Tuesday previews. And posting them. First Pete Buttigieg said goodbye. Ok, update the first one, edit the second. Wait to do anything else. Then Amy Klobuchar exited. Both are endorsing Joe Biden tonight. Which means a good amount of what was said yesterday needs […]

Warren Manifests an Opportunity

Pete Buttigieg finished ahead of Elizabeth Warren in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. He has more than three times as many delegates. He’s gone. Amy Klobuchar got double the support Warren did in New Hampshire, a state bordering Massachusetts, not Minnesota. Klobuchar was favored to win her home state tomorrow, Warren is not. […]

Super Tuesday Preview: CA, TX—There’s Delegates in Them Thar Hills

Between them, California and Texas have 643 delegates to assign. That’s more than 15% of the total. In a world where the same candidate won all of the delegates from both states, it would give them about a third of what they need to get nominated. Super Tuesday has a lot to pay attention to, […]

Super Tuesday Preview: MA, MN, VT—Favorite Daughters (and a Son)

Once upon a time, in a nomination system far, far away, there was something called a favorite son. Nominations were decided at party conventions. Some states did have primaries, but many didn’t. Often, even when there was a primary, the active candidates wouldn’t contest it. The state party would put up a popular governor or […]

Candidate Heat Check: Mid-January Edition

Who’s up? Who’s down? You might already have some ideas without my help. Joe Biden is leading nationwide. Iowa and New Hampshire are very crowded at the top. Bernie Sanders saw his odds go up. Elizabeth Warren dropped badly in the fall, but has stabilized. None of this is news. Neither is Pete Buttigieg still […]

Lane Four is Getting Crowded Again

Joe Biden has a solid constituency. So does Bernie Sanders. As does Elizabeth Warren. We’ve known this for months. Somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the primary electorate would prefer another option though. If one candidate can control most of these voters, they have a very good path to the nomination. If support winds […]

A Tale of Two Launches

A few weeks ago, Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick concluded the 2020 Democratic contest couldn’t survive without them. Somewhere north of $60 million in Bloomberg dollars later, his effort is showing a noticeable pulse. Meanwhile, Patrick is discovering a presidential campaign can be better cover than joining the Witness Protection Program. The degree of his […]

Home Sour Home (Part 2)

And we’re back. In Part 1, we talked about Elizabeth Warren’s challenges at home in Massachusetts, and by extension, New Hampshire. Of all candidates showing the vaguest of pulse, only Warren and Kamala Harris have a clear issue protecting their home state. The others are either beyond safe (Biden & Bernie), likely safe as long […]